Plains Grains Inc. expects the entire crop to grade No. 1 on average.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) annual acreage report released in late June, all wheat planted area for 2024is estimated at 47.2 million acres, down 5% from 2023. The 2024 winter wheat planted area, at 33.8 million acres, is down 8% from last year and down 1% from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 24.1 million acres are hard red winter (HRW), 6.14 million acres are soft red winter, and 3.59 million acres are white winter.
The USDA NASS August 12 crop production report forecasts winter wheat production at 1.36 billion bushels, up 1% from the July 1 forecast and up 9% from 2023.
As of August 1, U.S. winter wheat yield is forecast at 53.2 bushels per acre (bpa), up 1.2 bushels from last month and up 2.6 bushels from last year’s average yield of 50.6 bpa. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 25.6 million acres, down 1% from the acreage report released on June 28, 2024, but up 4% from 2023.
2023 recap. Winter wheat production for 2023 totaled 1.25 billion bushels, up from the 2022 total of 1.1 billion bushels. Yield, at 50.6 bpa, was up from 47 bpa in 2022. Area harvested was 24.68 million acres in 2023, up from 2022’s total of 23.46 million acres.
2024 HRW Crop Condition
In its Aug. 29 HRW harvest summary, Plains Grains Inc. (PGI) reported that harvest had been completed in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, South Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming. Idaho, Oregon, and Washington are nearing completion.
According to PGI Executive Director Royce Schaneman, the 2024 HRW wheat crop got off to a good start last fall with some relief from the drought conditions and saw steady to a slight increase in HRW plantings.
“Across the southern plains, the conditions varied with enough precipitation and snow to help the crop break dormancy in mostly fair to good condition.
“Throughout the growing season,” he continues, “there was just enough moisture to keep the crop progressing in a positive direction. We did have some locations that were abnormally dry, but compared to the last two years, the crop looked better than average as harvest approached.
“There were a few reports of disease pressures, mainly stripe rust, wheat streak mosaic virus, and leaf rust. Insect pressures were mainly due to stem saw-fly. Overall, the impact of these pests were managed well by producers, and impact on the crop was minimal, and only a small percentage of acres were lost due to flooding or hail.
“Harvest progressed at a steady pace, with each state seeming to have their brief interruptions with moisture. With moderate concerns about test weight, bleached kernels, and falling number tests, the crop pulled through with a straight average of 61.1 test weight solidifying No. 1 grade, and an average falling number of 361 is well above industry standards,” notes Schaneman.
“As the samples were analyzed by USDA-ARS Hard Winter Wheat Quality Laboratory, some of the highlights of this year’s crop are that there will be a wider range of protein levels for purchasers to choose from. Test weight has been above industry targets, and we expect that the entire crop will grade No. 1 on average. The crop is clean and good condition with only 0.1% foreign material and average total defects of 1%.
“The milling and baking characteristics show an average mill extraction rate of 74.9%. Flour protein at 11%, comparable to last year. Starch damage is 6.3%, farinograph color improved compared to last year, and absorptions are consistent. Development time and stability also increased. Extensograph/alveograph, indicate a more extensible, mellow dough strength, a slightly shorter mix time than 2023, with similar tolerance, and slightly lower loaf volumes.
“Most of these factors,” he adds, “can be attributed to having more lower-protein samples than we have seen the last two years. Yet, we are seeing a better relationship to protein content compared to last year. The dough handling is balanced with good extensibility and good overall dough strength.
“Weather, management, and genetics play major roles in how the wheat crop will develop, yield, and perform. The last several years we have seen – despite challenging environmental conditions – the U.S. HRW crop yield better than expected, producing high-quality, functional flour for our customers.”
Early Quality Notes
Schaneman tells Milling Journal that, as of late August, there have been 502 samples pulled and sent to the lab for evaluation across 34 grainsheds and eight states. The samples are in various stages of evaluation for mill/dough/bake properties, as well as kernel characteristics.
Of the samples now in the lab, there have been 81 composites formed by protein and by grainshed. The results of testing to this point are shown in the table above as a summary of kernel information. Expect another nine composites from Montana and the Pacific Northwest.
As of late August, early flour data shows a really good crop in terms of overall quality:
• Composites are right at 75% extraction on flour, 0.25% lower than 2023 protein.
• Flour color has a higher L value.
• Ash similar to previous years.
• Starch damage is good.
• No issues with falling number.
• Absorptions are right around average – 5.4 minutes for mix, 9.3 minutes for stability (slightly below the 10-minute target but greater than the past two years).
Overall loaf volumes (from the first 59 samples) are averaging 857cc, which is lower than the past two years but on trend with protein content.
This table provides comparison details about the protein distributions of the HRW crop from 2020 to present. Results shown are from the Gulf tributary area. Graphic by Plains Grains Inc.
Winter Wheat Harvest Estimations by State
Texas: Approximately 2.25 million acres of winter wheat were harvested, producing 74.25 million bushels, down from 77.7 million bushels in 2023. This year’s average yield was 33 bpa. This compares to 37 bpa in 2023, when 2.1 million acres were harvested.
Oklahoma: On 2.7 million harvested acres, production this year reached 105.3 million bushels compared to 68.6 million bushels in 2023 from 2.45 million acres. Yields were 39 bpa this year, up from 28 bpa in 2023.
Kansas: Production is estimated to be 314.6 million bushels on 7.15 million acres, which is an increase from 201.25 million bushels on 5.75 million acres in 2023. Yield this year is 44 bpa, up from 35 bpa last year.
Colorado: Approximately 1.83 million acres of winter wheat were harvested, producing 71.37 million bushels. Average yield is 39 bpa, down from 41 bpa in 2023 when 74.62 million bushels were produced from 1.82 million acres.
Nebraska: Winter wheat production is forecast at 48.6 million bushels, up from 36.96 million bushels last year. Harvested area is 900,000 acres, up from 880,000 acres last year. Average yield is forecast at 54 bpa, up from 42 bpa in 2023.
Montana: Production is forecast to reach 96.9 million bushels, up from the 85.68 million bushels produced in 2023. Average yield is expected to be 51 bpa this year, the same as last year.
Missouri: Production is forecast to reach 35.19 million bushels on 510,000 acres with an average yield of 69 bpa. In 2023, production was 42 million bushels on 600,000 acres with an average yield of 70 bpa.
South Dakota: Production is estimated to hit 47.74 million bushels on 770,000 harvested acres with an average yield of 62 bpa, an increase from last year’s level of 32.9 million bushels on 700,000 acres with an average yield of 47 bpa.
Oregon: Production is forecast at 55.83 million bushels from 725,000 acres for an average yield of 77 bpa. The state produced 40.6 million bushels in 2023 on 725,000 acres for an average yield of 56 bpa.
Illinois: Approximately 700,000 acres of winter wheat were harvested, producing 58.1 million bushels. Average yield is 83 bpa, down from 87 bpa in 2023 when 67.86 million bushels were produced from 780,000 acres.
Idaho: Production is forecast at 59.5 million bushels from 700,000 acres, which is an average yield of 88 bpa. Production this year was greater than in 2023: 56.1 million bushels on 630,000 acres with an average yield of 89 bpa.
Ohio: On 460,000 harvested acres, production this year reached 40.94 million bushels compared to 53.1 million bushels in 2023 from 590,000 acres. Yields were 89 bpa this year, down 1 bpa from 2023
Washington: Production is estimated to be 125.3 million bushels from 1.79 million acres for an average yield of 70 bpa. This is greater than 2023’s harvest that produced 94.5 million bushels from 1.75 million acres.
California: Production is estimated to be 6.15 million bushels from 75,000 acres for an average yield of 82 bpa. This is a decrease from the 2023 harvest that produced 6.4 million bushels from 80,000 acres.
Additional Resources
For more information on test weight and protein levels, go to the PGI website, plainsgrains.org. Another resource is the U.S. Wheat Associates’ crop quality reports at uswheat.org/crop-quality.
Tucker Scharfenberg,
senior managing editor
Plains Grains Inc. Sampling Methodology
Plains Grains Inc. (PGI) was formed in 2004 as a private nonprofit entity and is supported 100% financially by the states’ wheat commissions across the United States.
PGI operates in 12 states and pulls wheat samples yearly from approximately 500 elevators at various locations when at least 30% of the wheat harvest has been completed
The organization tests wheat in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho.
About 95% of these samples are analyzed by the USDA Agricultural Research Service’s Hard Winter Wheat Quality Laboratory in Manhattan, KS, where food technologists Richard Chen and Rhett Kaufman oversee this testing program. The balance, or 5%, of the samples are tested by Great Plains Analytical Lab, Kansas City, MO, because of its specialized equipment, such as gluten testing.
The testing information gathered by PGI also is used extensively by the U.S. Wheat Associates for its crop quality seminars around the world.
