A resilient crop with promising quality

This table provides comparison details about the protein distributions of the HRW crop from 2021 to present. Results shown are from the Gulf tributary area. Graphics by Plains Grains Inc.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) annual acreage report released in late June, all wheat planted area for 2025 is estimated at 45.5 million acres, down 1% from 2024. The 2025 winter wheat planted area, at 33.3 million acres, is down less than 1% from last year but up slightly from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 23.6 million acres are hard red winter (HRW), 6.1 million acres are soft red winter, and 3.67 million acres are white winter.

The USDA NASS August 12 crop production report forecasts winter wheat production at 1.36 billion bushels, up 1% from the July 1 forecast and up less than 1% from 2024.

As of August 1, U.S. winter wheat yield is forecast at 54.8 bushels per acre (bpa), up 0.6 bushels from July and up 3.1 bushels from last year’s average yield of 51.7 bpa. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 24.7 million acres, down less than 1% from the late June acreage report and down 5% from 2024.

2024-25 recap. Winter wheat production for the 2024-25 marketing year totaled 1.35 billion

The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.
The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC.

2025 HRW Crop Condition

According to PGI Executive Director Royce Schaneman, Growing conditions across the hard red winter (HRW) wheat region in 2025 told a familiar story of challenges met with resilience. While the season began under generally dry conditions, small pockets of moisture provided some early relief. In the Northern Plains, dryness contributed to sporadic germination and uneven stands, while fields in the Southern Plains established more uniformly.

“As the crop emerged from dormancy in early spring,” Schaneman tells Milling Journal, “it faced a string of weather extremes. Producers contended with late freeze events, gusty winds, and continued dryness. Despite these challenges, optimism remained as growers hoped for steady temperatures and timely moisture to carry the crop forward.

“Relief came in early May when Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas received much-needed rains. Colorado and Nebraska followed with precipitation later in May and early June,” he says.

“Midway through the season, southern plains fields looked healthy, while conditions in the north remained drier.”

Schaneman notes that, alongside the weather challenges, producers also observed a rise in viral diseases, including Wheat Streak Mosaic Virus, Barley Yellow Dwarf, and to a lesser extent High Plains Virus. “The impact, however, was generally slight to moderate yield loss.”

Later in the season, isolated areas of Nebraska and Colorado also reported limited stem sawfly pressure.

Heavier rains shifted the dynamic as harvest approached. “In Texas and Oklahoma,” he adds, “late-season precipitation delayed harvest and raised limited concerns about test weight and falling numbers. Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska also saw brief delays, but harvest overall progressed steadily through the Central Plains.”

Early Quality Notes

Throughout harvest, Plains Grains, Inc. collects and analyzes hundreds of crop samples to evaluate grade, non-grade factors, milling performance, dough strength, and baking quality. Schaneman comments that the first samples paint a promising picture. Test weights are slightly lower than last year, yet acceptable, with increased protein levels.

Flour yield is trending higher, and dough strength remains consistent with last year’s crop. Overall, the 2025 HRW crop demonstrates balanced performance: average tolerance, strong dough strength, and solid extensibility, traits that point to a functional and reliable wheat for millers and bakers alike. Final survey results will be available in the coming weeks.

Producers are already preparing for the next. Seed kickoff days and planting management workshops across several states are equipping growers with tools to address the disease pressures of 2025 and ensure a strong start for the 2026 crop.

The HRW story of 2025 is one of persistence. Despite weather and disease pressures, the crop is delivering dependable quality, an encouraging outcome for both producers and buyers.

Winter Wheat Harvest Estimations by State

Texas: Approximately 1.85 million acres of winter wheat were harvested, producing 68.45 million bushels, down from 80.6 million bushels in 2024. This year’s average yield was 37 bpa. This compares to 31 bpa in 2024, when 2.6 million acres were harvested.

Oklahoma: On 2.75 million harvested acres, production this year reached 104.5 million bushels compared to 108.3 million bushels in 2024 from 2.85 million acres. Yields were 38 bpa this year, the same as in 2024.

Kansas: Production is estimated to be 341.7 million bushels on 6.7 million acres, which is an increase from 307.45 million bushels on 7.15 million acres in 2024. Yield this year is 51 bpa, up from 43 bpa last year.

Colorado: Approximately 1.85 million acres of winter wheat were harvested, producing 74 million bushels. Average yield is 40 bpa, up from 35 bpa in 2024 when 64.4 million bushels were produced from 1.84 million acres.

Nebraska: Winter wheat production is forecast at 32.4 million bushels, down from 47.84 million bushels last year. Harvested area is 810,000 acres, down from 920,000 acres last year. Average yield is forecast at 40 bpa, down from 52 bpa in 2024.

Montana: Production is forecast to reach 94.76 million bushels, down from the 91.5 million bushels produced in 2024. Average yield is expected to be 46 bpa this year, down from 50 bpa last year.

Missouri: Production is forecast to reach 34.71 million bushels on 445,000 acres with an average yield of 78 bpa. In 2024, production was 36 million bushels on 480,000 acres with an average yield of 75 bpa.

South Dakota: Production is estimated to hit 29.9 million bushels on 650,000 harvested acres with an average yield of 46 bpa, a decrease from last year’s level of 47.88 million bushels on 760,000 acres with an average yield of 63 bpa.

This table provides comparison details about moisture distribution of the HRW crop from 2021 to present. Results shown are from the Gulf tributary area.
This table provides comparison details about moisture distribution of the HRW crop from 2021 to present. Results shown are from the Gulf tributary area.

Oregon: Production is forecast at 54.76 million bushels from 740,000 acres for an average yield of 74 bpa. The state produced 50.75 million bushels in 2024 on 725,000 acres for an average yield of 70 bpa.

Illinois: Approximately 680,000 acres of winter wheat were harvested, producing 59.16 million bushels. Average yield is 87 bpa, up from 86 bpa in 2024 when 60.2 million bushels were produced from 700,000 acres.

Idaho: Production is forecast at 68.87 million bushels from 710,000 acres, which is an average yield of 97 bpa. Production this year was greater than in 2024, when harvest was measured at 62.3 million bushels on 700,000 acres with an average yield of 89 bpa.

Ohio: On 500,000 harvested acres, production this year reached 43 million bushels compared to 39.52 million bushels in 2024 from 465,000 acres. Yields were 86 bpa this year, down 1 bpa from 2024.

Washington: Production is estimated to be 118.8 million bushels from 1.8 million acres for an average yield of 66 bpa. This is slightly less than 2024’s harvest that produced 122.5 million bushels from 1.75 million acres.

California: Production is estimated to be 6.8 million bushels from 80,000 acres for an average yield of 85 bpa. This is an increase from the 2024 harvest that produced 5.85 million bushels from 75,000 acres.

Additional Resources

For more information on test weight and protein levels, go to the PGI website, plainsgrains.org. Another resource is the U.S. Wheat Associates’ crop quality reports at uswheat.org/crop-quality.