Three years after Tunisia’s self-imposed deadline for achieving self-sufficiency in wheat production came and passed, the North African country continues to grapple with widening supply deficit of both durum and soft wheat, as well as a balloning import bill to sustain surging domestic demand for the cereal.
Tunisia is not even close to achieving self-sufficiency of its annual wheat requirement as the sector continues to grapple with immense challenges of climate change, high farm input costs and limited access to agricultural credit. Thus begins the third year following a 2023 deadline for autonomy in the supply of the grain that covers 46% and 9% of the of the country’s cereal producing areas according to the United Nation’s (UN) food agency, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
2023 Deadline
The government set out a plan to become independent in wheat supply in 2023 through expanding the acreage under durum wheat to 800,000 hectares, providing at least 40,000 metric tons and improving on farm extension services targeting wheat farmers in anticipating the progam would yield an estimated 1.05 million metric tons of grain, including 945,000 metric tons of durum wheat.
Part of the strategy included ramping up cereal storage capacity, improving the capacity of collection centers to adequately cater for grain growers and forging closer partnerships with international financial institutions and development partners.
But come 2023, Tunisia reported an “exceptionally dry year - which is also the fourth consecutive drought year, leading to water resources in large dams being almost fully depleted leading to a disastrous grain harvest season,” according to a World Bank brief.
With that year’s wheat harvest declining to 0.25 million metric tons from 0.75 million metric tons the previous year, a quantity said to have fallen short of covering for the country’s seed production needs, Tunisia was forced to revise its plan to cater for the new realities, including “increased seed import quantities compared to initial plans.”
Surging Demand
Nearly three years later, Tunisia, despite failing to achieve independence in its wheat production, is reporting a surge in demand for durum and soft wheat. Import volumes continue to grow despite maintaining an expensive wheat subsidy and ocassional backing from international institutions including global lenders, such as the World Bank.
Tunisia is now left to continue with its decades-old trade practice of importation to meet the increasing demand for wheat currently estimated at 2.8 million metric tons even as the country remains among the top per capita wheat consumption rate at 236kg annually.
For instance, at the end of 2025, Tunisia’s grain agency the Office des Céréales (ODC), floated bids for the purchase of wheat from various sources with several companies winning tenders to supply the grain.
In December 2025, ODC awarded four tenders for the supply of 125,000 tons of soft wheat from French agro-industrial group, Soufflet; Italian supplier, Finagrit; Bulgarian firm, Buildcom; and and Dutch firm, Louis Dreyfus at an average price of US$256.84 per ton.
Moreover, ODC bought 100,000 tons of durum wheat in four tenders from leading world durum wheat processor and distributor, Casillo, and UAE’s grains trader, Amber Grains, at an average price of US$319.69.
Cereals Board, which maintains an official monopoly on the inventory, purchase, and sale of wheat and barley for the domestic market, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), floated a tender for 100,000 metric tons of the cereal to meet surging domestic demand.
A Long Way Off
The shifting deadline by Tunisia for achieving self-sufficiency in recent decades is likely to continue for many more years “considring the substantial share of imports in current consumption,” according to a recent brief by the Policy Center for the New South, a Moroccan think tank.
The Center cites World Bank statistics indicating Tunisia’s durum and soft wheat accounts for 60% and 3.6% of the country’s domestic cereal production, which accounts for only 31.6% of the North Africa’s nation’s total consumption.
“In other words, well over 50% of cereals are imported,” it states.
The demand for wheat in Tunisia is projected to increase to 2.99 million metric tons for the marketing year 2025-26, “reflecting the average population growth trend of approximately two%,” according to the USDA.
Tunisia, which lies along the Mediterranean Sea with Algeria to the west and Libya to the southeast, has an estimated population of nearly 13 million people. USDA estimates the per capita wheat consumption to be 236kg.
The projected consumption volume this year is an increase from the 2.885 million metric tons for marketing year 2024-25, with the Tunisian government subsidizing the cereal to guarantee “the entire population access to wheat flour, semolina and bread at prices below market rates.”
However, Tunisia’s wheat output for the marketing year 2025-26 is projected to reach 1.35 million metric tons, equivalent to 45% of the amount the North African nation requires to meet domestic demand. This means Tunisia would have to import nearly 55% of the wheat required to meet domestic consumption demand.
ODC diverts nearly all the imports into the domestic market where it is sold at subsidized prices with the government paying for the difference according to USDA.
“Despite concerns that the wheat subsidy is becoming too expensive for the Tunisian budget, there is no indication that the subsidy program will change or that imports will decrease,” it adds.
Although private wheat millers can obtain permits for importation of wheat into Tunisia, they are required by law to export all the milled wheat products after obtaining a government license.
Tunisia’s wheat imports bill is expected to remain high as efforts to rejig domestic production systems through initiatives such as access to international funding to stabilize supply and invest in irrigated wheat production are yet to successfully take off.
The huge gap between supply and demand underscores the vulnerability of Tunisia, and many other North African countries, to economic decline and climate change, according to a previous report by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA).
“This vulnerability is exacerbated by the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has disrupted global wheat supplies,” it says.
Climate’s Impact
Furthermore, for the last decade or so, Tunisia, which relies on agriculture for 10% contribution to its economy and at least 16% for its labor force, “ has experienced rising temperatures, declining rainfall, and a recurrence of extreme weather events,” according to the Platform for Agricultural Risk Management, a global partnership on Agricultural Risk Management for Development.
“These climate-related disruptions threaten food production, destabilize farmers’ incomes, and jeopardize the socio-economic fabric of the country’s rural communities,” it says.
In 2025, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), an international financial institution and a specialized agency of the UN, estimates Tunisia to have lost 30% of the area planted to rain-fed cereal crops due to drought.
According to estimates by Tunisia’s Ministry of Agriculture and farmer associations cited by USDA, seeded area for durum and soft wheat in the country decreased to 566,000 hectares in 2024-25, down from 620,000 hectares in 2023-24 partly due to “seed availabilities the beginning of the campaign and unfavorable weather conditions around the seeding period.”
Tunisia’s climate volatility, says a statement by Biodiversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture, “has led to more frequent extreme weather events—including prolonged droughts, sudden floods and intense heatwaves—severely disrupting agricultural production cycles, particularly for rainfed crops such as cereals and orchards.”
Wheat farmers in Tunisia have previously cited lack of rain, insufficient irrigation water and salinity in irrigation canals as major setbacks in their production raising the question on how viable irrigation wheat farming is this country with an estimated area of 163,610 square kilometers.
Occasionally, Tunisia does experience favorable weather conditions that support wheat production as it happened last year, especially in the first quarter when Tunisia reported above average precipitation mainly between April and May in wheat producing areas of Beja, Bizerte, Jendouba, Kairouan, Le Kef and Siliana.
The FAO estimates the winter cereal harvest for June 2025 at 1.7 million tons, which was nearly 18% above the five-year average. Tunisia, FAO adds, is keen on achieving 3 million metric tons of wheat by pursuing policies such as subsidizing certified seeds, agricultural machinery, irrigation equipment, irrigation water and improving access to seasonal credit for grain producers.
Some of these policies are critical in Tunisia’s endeavor to expand acreage under irrigated wheat production by another 120,000 hectares, despite reports indicating a dip in the irrigated area under both wheat and barley to 80,000 hectares down from 84,000 hectares in 2025.
However, sustainability and growth of Tunisia’s wheat market would most likely depend on the government’s handling of the economy, and there are signals the country’s current leadership has a long way to go toward stabilizing the economy for the rejuvenation of key sectors, including agriculture.
According to the Policy Center for the New South, Tunisia not only requires “a repurposing of public expenditures, smarter subsidies, private investment and access to concessional funding” but the government must realize “the prospects for achieving food security for all hinge on the leadership’s capacity to transform crisis into opportunity—by confronting climate change and charting a course toward a resilient, productive and inclusive economy.”
Moreover, the World Bank, which in 2022 extended a US$130 million loan to Tunisia to lessen the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict by financing vital soft wheat imports, previously proposed reforms such as existential weaknesses and distortions in the grain value chain, including the related food security policies and the modernization of the OCD and the food subsidy system.
Shem Oirere is a freelance writer based in Nairobi, Kenya. He can be reached at shem@shemoirere.com.