Quarterly report projects a 4% increase
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agriculture Service in early February estimated Ukraine’s wheat production to be 23.5 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025-26 marketing year, a 4% increase from the previous marketing year.
The State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU) also published its production numbers for barley (5.3 MMT) and rye (211,000 MMT). Barley production was similar to 2024-25, and rye is a 4% decrease from 2024-25.
Ukraine’s corn was still being harvested at the time of report writing. According to Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture (MEEA), as of January 15, 92% of the total area had been harvested, resulting in 28.9 MMT of corn.
Exports
According to State Customs Service of Ukraine data, 7.8 MMT of wheat and 1.3 MMT of barley were exported in the first half of 2025-26 (July-December 2025). Average grain exports from Ukraine were 30% slower over this time period, compared to the same period in 2024-25 (see chart above).
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid, rail and port infrastructure, and vessels, both docked in ports and in the Black Sea, have constrained Ukraine’s 2025 exports.
The European Union’s introduction of tariff rate quotas also contributed to the slump in wheat exports.