The New Demand Equation: What USDA Data Reveal About Flour Consumption

At the 2026 International Association of Operative Millers (IAOM) Conference & Expo, one message surfaced repeatedly in presentations and conversations: the United States (U.S.) flour milling industry is entering a period of unusual uncertainty. While millers have successfully navigated economic cycles for decades, many industry leaders are concerned that today’s challenges are different.

Those concerns are reflected in recent market trends, including a sustained decline in domestic flour demand and conditions that differ from much of the previous two decades. The larger question is whether these changes represent a temporary transition or the beginning of a more lasting transformation. Examining U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data may provide a useful starting point for answering that question.

Understanding Domestic Flour Demand

To better understand domestic demand, economists rely on USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) per-capita wheat flour disappearance estimates. These estimates account for production, trade and inventory changes to calculate domestic flour use. Because there is no direct national measure of actual flour consumption, disappearance is used as the best available proxy. For simplicity, this article uses “consumption” while recognizing the USDA measure is flour disappearance.

The Per-Capita Consumption Trend

According to USDA ERS estimates, U.S. per-capita wheat flour consumption increased during the late 20th century before reaching some of its highest levels around the turn of the century. During the late 1990s, U.S. per-capita wheat flour consumption peaked at approximately 146.8 pounds per person in 1997. Since then, the measure has gradually decreased to an estimated 126.6 pounds per person in 2025, its lowest level in about 40 years, since 1986.

It is important to note that USDA per-capita wheat flour consumption estimates reflect flour available for domestic consumption, including imports, whereas U.S. flour production data represent output from domestic mills only.

Production Is Following Demand 

The decline in flour consumption is now becoming increasingly visible in milling statistics. According to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Flour Milling Products Annual Summary, U.S. flour mills produced approximately 419 million hundredweight (cwt) of flour during 2025, the lowest annual production volume since 2011, with lower output levels continuing through 2025. The 2025 total reflects a decline from approximately 430 million cwt in 2022, highlighting the steady erosion in domestic flour production over the past several years.

The trend continued into 2026. During the first quarter, U.S. mills produced approximately 103 million cwt, about 3% below the same period a year earlier. While quarterly production naturally fluctuates, the continuing decline aligns with the longer-term moderation observed in domestic flour consumption.

Lower production, however, should not necessarily be interpreted as reduced milling capability.

Milling Capacity Remains Ahead of Demand

Despite declining production volumes, U.S. milling capacity has remained relatively stable. The USDA NASS reported daily 24-hour milling capacity of approximately 1.59 million cwt per day during the first quarter of 2026, compared with approximately 1.60 million cwt per day during the same quarter in 2025. The relatively small change indicates that the industry’s physical infrastructure remains largely intact even as output has moderated.

This gap between available capacity and actual production is a defining characteristic of the current milling environment. For decades, the U.S. milling industry invested in larger, more efficient facilities capable of meeting strong demand from food manufacturers and consumers. Today, those same assets continue to provide significant processing capability.

Mill utilization rates, which measure how much available milling capacity is being used, have recently remained in the mid-80% range, below the higher utilization levels achieved during stronger market conditions. Lower utilization can influence production scheduling, maintenance decisions, labor efficiency and future capital investments, although individual companies and regions may vary.

Regional Markets Show Different Impacts 

Milling operations are closely tied to local wheat supplies, transportation networks and customer locations, and a decline in flour demand may affect regions differently.

According to USDA NASS data, Midwest milling operations experienced one of the larger year-over-year declines in 2025, with flour production down approximately 4.7% from the previous year, while Western milling operations recorded a more modest decline of approximately 1.9%.

These differences highlight the importance of regional market dynamics within the milling sector.

Wheat Grind Reflects the Same Trend

The decline in flour production is also evident further upstream in the milling process. The USDA NASS data show that U.S. flour mills ground approximately 907 million bushels of wheat during 2025, a level below stronger historical periods, when annual wheat grindings approached 1 billion bushels in the late 1990s and early 2000s. During the first quarter of 2026, wheat grind totaled approximately 222 million bushels, compared with roughly 227 million bushels during the same quarter of 2025.

While wheat grind appears to have declined less sharply than flour production, the two measures capture separate aspects of milling activity and do not move in direct proportion. Differences in yields, inventory changes and market conditions can affect finished flour output. Although U.S. mills obtain much of their wheat from domestic channels, imported wheat provides additional supply.

Imports and global trade have expanded wheat supply sources available to U.S. mills, food manufacturers, retailers and consumers.
According to USDA ERS data, U.S. wheat grain imports have increased dramatically over the past five decades, rising from approximately 0.1 million metric tons in the 1970s to 1.0 million metric tons in 2000/01 and 4.0 million metric tons in 2024/25. That represents an increase of approximately 3,900%, or a 40-fold increase, over the period.

A similar shift is evident in wheat-based food products. The USDA ERS data show that imports of flour and wheat-based products have also increased from approximately 0.5 million metric tons in 1995 to roughly 0.75 million metric tons in 2005 and approximately 1.1 million metric tons annually on average in recent years when measured on a wheat-equivalent basis. This most recent figure represents the average annual volume from 2015/16 through 2024/25, rather than a single-year value, because individual-year values were not available in the published summary data. Even using the multi-year average, imports of wheat-based foods have more than doubled since 1995, representing an increase of approximately 120%.

However, available USDA ERS data for individual product categories illustrate the growth in imports over time. For example, imports of durum pasta and couscous increased from approximately 304,000 bushels in the 1989/90 marketing year to 2.9 million bushels in 1999/00 and 4.7 million bushels in 2024/25, measured on a wheat-equivalent basis. This represents an increase of approximately 1,450% since 1989/90.

Canada remains the largest supplier of wheat to the U.S., providing approximately 2.2 million metric tons of wheat annually, valued at more than $700 million, according to U.S. trade data.

Reduced Export Opportunities

In addition to imports, exports have historically played an important role in shaping the U.S. wheat economy.

During the 1970s and 1980s, wheat was a major U.S. agricultural commodity, supported by strong production and growing international demand. The 1972 U.S.-Soviet grain agreement, commonly known as the “Great Grain Deal,” highlighted the global importance of U.S. wheat by opening a significant export market and contributing to a period of strong demand for American grain. During this era, exports accounted for a substantial share of total U.S. wheat production, reinforcing the country’s position as one of the world’s leading wheat suppliers.

Since then, USDA ERS data show that U.S. wheat exports have declined from the historically high levels reached during the late 20th century. U.S. wheat exports peaked at approximately 2.2 billion bushels in the 1981/82 marketing year. By comparison, exports totaled approximately 775 million bushels in the 2024/25 marketing year, representing a decline of nearly 65% from that peak

Wheat Supply Chain Continues to Adapt

While changes in flour demand are affecting the milling sector, the U.S. wheat production system has also undergone significant restructuring. Over the past two decades, the number of farms producing wheat for grain has declined substantially. According to the USDA Census of Agriculture, the number of U.S. wheat farms fell from 169,528 in 2002 to 97,014 in 2022, a decrease of approximately 43%.

The decline reflects broader changes across the agricultural landscape as demand patterns and market conditions continue to evolve, including farm consolidation, rising production costs, changing commodity economics and shifts in cropping decisions.

At the same time, improvements in genetics, crop management and yields have helped maintain wheat production despite fewer farms and reduced planted acreage over the long term

Understanding the New Demand Equatio

The U.S. milling industry continues to operate one of the world’s most modern and efficient flour processing systems. Investments in automation, food safety, quality assurance and plant modernization have maintained substantial processing capacity across the country. The industry’s strength and resilience are rooted in its technical expertise, manufacturing capabilities and ability to adapt to changing market conditions.

The USDA data demonstrate that millers are facing a marketplace increasingly influenced by global trade dynamics and competition that extends beyond traditional domestic channels. Alongside lower domestic flour demand compared with stronger historical periods, these changes are reshaping the environment in which the industry must navigate.

Wheat and wheat-based foods remain a significant part of the food system, and flour continues to serve as a foundational ingredient. While restoring domestic demand levels seen at the turn of the century would benefit the industry, the new demand equation might be more complex. Understanding all the forces driving these changes and how they interact to shape the market will be important in determining what comes next for the U.S. milling sector.


Christine is a seasoned writer with over 20 years of experience in FDA-regulated industries, where she has honed the ability to communicate complex data to regulatory and scientific audiences. With a background in English and Research Administration, she is dedicated to making technical content both clear and engaging. She is excited to connect with new readers in the grain handling and processing community, providing valuable insights on industry developments. She also holds a deep appreciation for her agricultural heritage, rooted in family farming on the coast of Lake Superior.