NAMA: Soft Wheat Spring Crop Outlook
Panel predicts increase in soft red winter wheat and modest uptick in soft white
A North American Millers’ Association (NAMA) panel of soft wheat analysts predicted a significant increase for this year’s soft red winter (SRW) wheat crop and a notable increase in the soft white (SW) winter crop hinging on weather, planted acres, and good yields.
This forecast was made from figures developed by the NAMA panel and presented April 20 at the close of NAMA’s virtual Spring Conference, April 16, 19-20. (The results also were tabulated by Milling & Baking News.)
Soft Red Prediction
The panel predicted 2021 SRW wheat crop production of 332,701,000 bushels, a 25% increase from 2020’s crop of 266,235,000 bushels. This is an increase of 66,466,000 bushels from last year’s total.
In the Central State region, increases are forecast for Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, with projected production increases of 7,320,000, 7,642,000, 5,360,000, and 7,251,000 bushels, respectively, in each state.
In its Mid-Atlantic region forecast, the panel also expects modest production increases in Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, with projected gains of 55,000, 114,000, and 1,744,000 bushels, respectively, in each state.
In the Mid-Atlantic region, Delaware is expected to decrease SRW production by 18%, with a projected decrease of 730,000 bushels.
In the Midwest region, the panel expects increases in Illinois, Kentucky, and Missouri, with projected gains of 5,135,000, 9,956,000, and 9,305,000 bushels, respectively, in each state.
Other states expected to increase SRW production are South Carolina and Virginia, with projected increases of 766,000, and 1,672,000 bushels, respectively.
In the Southeastern region, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee all are expected to increase production significantly, with projected increases of 3,540,000, 1,475,000, 1,590,000, and 8,130,000 bushels, respectively. Georgia is forecasted to have a 17% decrease of 760,000 bushels.
Soft White Prediction
The panel also projected the 2021 SW crop to increase by 7% from last year, for a total of 249,479,000 bushels. This is an increase of 15,511,000 bushels from 2020’s total of 233,968,000 bushels.
Increases are expected in Idaho, Washington, and Oregon, with projected gains in SW production of 10,865,000, 5,586,000, and 1,392,000 bushels, respectively.
Michigan is expecting a decrease of 582,000 bushels, followed by Georgia with a scant decline of 16,000 bushels. (Georgia is not listed in the table.) New York expects a gain of 52,000 bushels.
Panel Members
Grover Van Hoose, grain buyer for The Mennel Milling Co., reporting on the Central States region, and chair of the soft wheat crop report and forecast panel.
- Shawn Branstetter, wheat merchandiser, The Andersons, Inc., reporting on the Mid-Atlantic region.
- Carl Schwinke, vice president-grain supply, Siemer Milling Company, reporting on the Midwest region.
- Samuel Doering, soft red wheat director, Ardent Mills, reporting on the Southeast and Pacific Northwest regions.
- Mark Rossol, commodity merchandiser-wheat grain group, The Andersons, Inc., reporting on the South/Delta/Southeast region.
Karl Ohm, contributing editor
From Second Quarter Milling Journal 2021