Ontario Wheat Crop Outlook: Negligible Increases Seen For Soft Red, Hard Red Winter, Spring Wheat Crops

Scott Krakar, grain merchandiser, London Agricultural Commodities, Inc., London, ON (800-265-1885), predicted negligible increases in Ontario’s soft red and hard red winter and spring wheat crops, in a forecast given April 20 at the close of the North American Millers’ Association’s (NAMA virtual Spring Conference, April 16, 19-20.

2021 Ontario Wheat Outlook

Based on figures from Ontario’s crop insurance program, Krakar estimated 1.020 million acres of planted winter wheat, with production expected to reach 85.8 million bushels based on an average of 84 bushels per acre (bpa).

This forecast represents a mere .001% increase in production compared to 2020, when winter wheat harvested totaled 1.035 million acres and produced nearly 85.9 million bushels based on 83 bpa.

According to Krakar, fall 2020 conditions for winter wheat were good with very little damage or winter kill.

With slightly more than 114,000 acres planted last year, according to Statistics Canada, conditions for spring wheat were somewhat poorer due to late-season dryness, and overall yields averaged 47.3 bpa.

In 2021, spring wheat plantings are expected to decrease to 110,000 acres and produce 6.16 million bushels based on an average yield of 56 bpa.

In breaking down the overall figures further, Krakar gave these projections:

Ontario Soft Red Prediction

The 2021 soft red winter wheat crop is projected to increase a negligible .009% from 2020 for a total of 76.3 million bushels. This is an increase of only 700,000 bushels from 2020’s total of 75.6 million.

Ontario Soft White Prediction

The 2021 soft white wheat crop is projected to decrease by nearly 40% from last year for a total of 2.6 million bushels. This is a decrease of 1.7 million bushels from 2020’s total of 4.3 million.

Ontario Hard Red Winter Prediction

The 2021 hard red winter wheat crop is projected to increase 15% from last year for a total of 6.9 million bushels. This is an increase of 900,000 bushels compared to 2020’s total of 6 million.

Ontario Hard Red Spring Prediction

The 2021 hard red spring wheat crop is projected to increase by nearly 14% from last year for a total of 6.16 million bushels. This is an increase of 760,000 bushels compared to 2020’s total of 5.4 million.

Karl Ohm, contributing editor

From Second Quarter 2021 MILLING JOURNAL