NAMA panel predicts 61% increase in soft white winter wheat
A North American Millers’ Association (NAMA) panel of soft wheat analysts predicted a significant increase for this year’s soft white (SW) winter wheat crop and a small decrease in the soft white (SRW) winter crop hinging on weather, planted acres, and good yields.
This forecast was made from figures developed by the NAMA panel and presented April 12 at the close of the NAMA Spring Conference at Isle of Palms, SC. (The results also were tabulated by Milling & Baking News.)
Soft Red Prediction
The panel predicted 2022 SRW wheat crop production of 358,658,000 bushels, a -1% change from 2021’s crop of 360,689,000. This is a decrease of 2,031,000 bushels from last year’s total.
In the Central State region, decreases are forecast for Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, with projected production decreases of 3,970,000, 7,218,000, 8,495,000, and 170,000 bushels, respectively, in each state.
In its Mid-Atlantic region forecast, the panel expects marginal production increases in Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, with projected gains of 470,000, 144,000, and 105,000 bushels, respectively, in each state.
Also in the Mid-Atlantic region, decreases are expected in Maryland (-1,765,000 bushels) and New York (-2,139,000 bushels).
In the Midwest region, the panel expects increases in Kentucky and Missouri, with projected gains of 3,014,000 and 8,588,000 bushels, respectively. Illinois’ SRW production is projected as a -7% decrease from 40,225,000 bushels in 2021 to 37,040,000 bushels in 2022, a difference of 3,460,000 bushels.
In the Southeast Region, North Carolina and Virginia are projected to have increases of 6,680,000 and 4,390,000 bushels, respectively.
In the South/Delta/Southwest region, Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee all are expected to increase production, with projected increases of 470,000, 425,000, 6,129,000, and 4,755,000 bushels, respectively. In the case of Oklahoma, its projected increase is a difference of 532%; the state produced 1,151,000 bushels of SRW in 2021.
Soft White Prediction
The panel projected the 2022 SW crop to increase by 61% from last year, for a total of 236,560,000 bushels. This is an increase of 89,656,000 bushels from 2021’s total of 146,904,000 bushels.
In the Pacific Northwest region, Idaho, Washington, and Oregon, the panel expects production increases of 23,089,000, 59,538,000, and 15,543,000 bushels, respectively.
Panel Members
• Grover Van Hoose, grain merchandising manager, The Mennel Milling Co., reporting on the Central States region, and chair of the soft wheat crop report and forecast panel.
• Shawn Branstetter, senior manager, The Andersons, Inc., reporting on the Mid-Atlantic region.
• Carl Schwinke, vice president-grain supply, Siemer Milling Company, reporting on the Midwest region.
• Samuel Doering, soft red wheat director, Ardent Mills, reporting on the Southeast and Pacific Northwest regions.
• Mark Rossol, wheat merchandiser, The Andersons, Inc., reporting on the South/Delta/Southeast region.
Tucker Scharfenberg, managing editor