A 30% decrease in winter wheat plantings is expected
Scott Krakar, grain merchandiser, London Agricultural Commodities, Inc., London, ON (800-265-1885), predicted decreases in Ontario’s soft red and hard red winter and spring wheat crops, in a forecast given April 12 at the close of the North American Millers’ Association’s Spring Conference at the Wild Dunes Resort in Isle of Palms, SC.
2022 Ontario Wheat Outlook
Winter wheat. Based on figures from Ontario’s crop insurance program, Krakar estimated 763,600 acres of planted winter wheat, with production expected to reach 64.14 million bushels based on an average of 84 bushels per acre (bpa).
This forecast represents a nearly 30% decrease in production compared to 2021, when winter wheat harvested totaled 1.08 million acres and produced nearly 98.17 million bushels based on 90.9 bpa.
Spring wheat. According to Statistics Canada, spring wheat yields in 2021 were 54.1 bpa from 97,000 acres planted, slightly better than 47.3 bpa from 114,000 acres planted in 2020.
With nearly 97,000 acres planted in 2021, conditions for spring wheat were somewhat better than in 2020, with overall yields averaged 54.1 bpa.
In 2022, spring wheat plantings are expected to be approximately 100,000 acres and produce 5.2 million bushels based on an average yield of 52 bpa.
In breaking down the overall figures further, Krakar gave these projections:
Ontario Soft Red Prediction
The 2022 soft red winter wheat crop is projected to decrease from 87.4 million bushels in 2021 to 58.4 million bushels this year.
Ontario Soft White Prediction
The 2022 soft white wheat crop is projected to decrease by more than 50% from last year for a total of 1.3 million bushels. This is a decrease of 1.6 million bushels from 2021’s total of 2.9 million.
Ontario Hard Red Winter Prediction
The 2022 hard red winter wheat crop also is projected to decrease significantly from last year for a total of 4.5 million bushels. This is a decrease of 3.4 million bushels from 2021’s total of 7.9 million bushels.
Ontario Hard Red Spring Prediction
The 2022 hard red spring wheat crop is projected to be unchanged from last year for a total of 5.2 million bushels.
Tucker Scharfenberg, managing editor