NAMA panel sees soft red winter wheat down 16.5% from 2023.

A North American Millers’ Association (NAMA) panel of soft wheat analysts predicted a significant decrease for this year’s soft red winter (SRW) wheat crop. The panel of millers and merchandisers forecast U.S. 2024 SRW wheat production at 375,143,000 bushels, down 74,622,000 bushels (16.5%), from 449,017,000 bushels in 2023.

This forecast was made from figures developed by the NAMA panel and presented in March at the close of the NAMA Spring Conference at the Hilton Marco Island Beach Resort, on Marco Island, FL.

If the forecast is realized, SRW wheat production in 2024 would be the second largest since 451,531,000 bushels were produced in 2014.
The recent record high SRW production was 618,067,000 bushels in 2008. The all-time, record high SRW wheat production was 678,017,000 bushels produced in 1981.

Production was forecast to be down from 2023 in the Central states, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic states, and the Southeast. Decreases in those states more than offset production gains forecast for the minor SRW wheat production states of Oklahoma and Texas.

Central Region

In the Central states of Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, projected production of 100,832,000 bushels would be down 24% from 132,482,000 in 2023.

Midwest
In the Midwest states of Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, and Tennessee, the forecast for production at 154,132,000 bushels would be down 11% from 181,540,000 bushels in 2023.

Southeast
In the Southeast, comprising Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, the production projection of 52,950,000 bushels would be down 18% from 64,530,000 bushels in 2023.

Mid-Atlantic
In the Mid-Atlantic states of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania, the forecast production of 42,800,000 bushels would be an 18% decrease from 52,067,000 bushels last year.

South/Delta/Southwest
In the South/Delta/Southwest region, including Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, production projected at 24,429,000 bushels would mark an increase of 28% from 19,146,000 bushels in 2023.

Soft White Winter Wheat
The panel also issued a soft white winter wheat forecast for 2024 at 190,136,000 bushels. If realized, soft white wheat production would be down 9% from 210,051,000 bushels last year.

A forecast for fewer bushels produced in Washington and a sharp 82% decline in soft white wheat production in Michigan would more than offset increases forecast by the panel for Wisconsin, New York, Idaho, and Oregon.