Morocco’s wheat sector is still grappling with the devastating impact of a prolonged drought that has diminished its acreage significantly. This development has been a devastating blow to North African nation’s drive to self-reliance, as imports of soft and durum wheat continues to report a sharp uptick in response to high demand from domestic consumers.

Although reports from development and humanitarian groups indicate successful conclusion of the planting of 2024 winter crops last December, almost entirely rainfed, the dry conditions have persisted with little amounts of rain in February and March that did little to reverse the shrinking acreage under wheat production.
During the 2024-25 crop year, an estimated 2 million hectares (ha) will be dedicated to wheat, which is a decline from the 2.7 million ha and 2.5 million ha in 2020-21 and 2022-23 years, respectively.

Government and private sector reports warn of tough times ahead as water levels, particularly in Moroccan dams used for irrigation, remains extremely low.

Moroccan Climate Trends
With the current drought in Morocco having persisted for six consecutive years, one report says the water levels in the country’s reservoirs “are critically low with average dam filling at about 23%” at the beginning of 2024. (1)
Morocco’s average rainfall varies from 27.6-31.5 inches on the northern reliefs and from 0.79-23.6 inches on the coastal areas, according to a study published in the European Journal of Sustainable Development (EJSD). For inland regions, rainfall declines westward from the Atlas Mountains to east of it but on average it ranges between 7.87-23.6 inches. (2)

“Morocco’s climate has been marked in recent decades by an increase in hot extremes and a decrease in cold extremes throughout the country, and a decrease in rainfall in Morocco, except for the Saharan region and the Casablanca-Safi coastal fringe,” the study adds.

According to the United Nation’s humanitarian information service, ReliefWeb, water levels in Morocco’s major dams “have remained low compared to the average, limiting the availability of water for irrigation.” (1)

It is estimated that the area under irrigation shrunk to 400,000 ha from 750,000 ha six years ago, which has likely impacted overall cereal output.
“Total cereal production in 2023 is estimated at about 5.6 million tonnes, with a substantial recovery if compared to the drought-stricken 2022 harvest but still about 15% below the five‑year average due to widespread and prolonged dry weather conditions,” the report adds.

Analysts predict an unfavorable winter crop output in 2024 because of current weather patterns. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) says wheat production will shrink further, resulting in increased wheat imports to Morocco.

USDA has projected total wheat output for the 2024-25 marketing year at 2.3 million metric tons, 45% lower than the previous season.
In 2023, wheat production was estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, 20% below the five-year average, according to ReliefWeb.

Imports Projected to Rise
A poor crop means Morocco’s wheat imports are likely to rise sharply. USDA estimates imports to reach 7.5 million metric tons in the short term, which is 52% more than the country’s import average.

Morocco’s wheat imports comprise largely of soft wheat, with the country bringing in from the international market an estimated 20.8 million quintals annually between 1973 and 2021. This amount is more than 5.6 times greater than its durum wheat imports, which average 3.6 million quintals annually, according to the EJSD study.

Faced with the burden of ensuring each of its citizens within the country gets at least 255kg, which is the consumption per capita in Morocco annually (nearly four times the world average), the government has attempted several strategies to keep up with the demand.

Plans to Meet Demand
For instance, in the mid-1980s, the government unveiled a plan to expand the acreage under production of soft wheat, the preferred source bread flour for Moroccans. The plan, which targeted rainfed and irrigated areas, has been challenged by changing weather patterns.

Part of the plan also included direct price subsidies to wheat producers and millers, estimated at US$21.2 per quintal, to ensure stability in supply.
But due to extreme drought and floods, Morocco has been forced in recent years to vary its wheat trade policies, especially toward import tariffs.

For instance, in 2015, the government announced a 75% ad valorem tariff for imports of durum wheat from the United States and 170% for all imported from the European Union (EU) to protect the country’s domestic wheat market.

But as the dry season spell showed signs of prevailing for the long haul, the government reduced the tariff to 70% for U.S. durum wheat imports and 30% for EU sources.


Surging Prices
However, Morocco, which in 2020 ranked as the 11th largest wheat importer in the world, succumbed to demands for more wheat in the domestic market, as the gap between production and consumption widened to more than 900% by 2021, according to the EJSD study.

Wheat prices in Morocco surged as demand for the cereal increased, with indications it reached US$70 per quintal up from US$30, a trend attributed to the worsening drought, surge in international freight rates, and the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

In November 2021, Morocco suspended import duties on both soft and durum wheat as the government, through the National Inter-Professional Office for Cereals and Legumes (ONICL), stepped up measures to build up adequate stock.

Moreover, in December 2023, Morocco announced new four-month import subsidies targeting soft wheat. The subsidies ended in April.

The government also unveiled a new storage subsidy in January 2024 as “a mechanism to build wheat stocks,” with millers or warehouse operators who store the cereal for two weeks qualifying for MAD 2.5 per quintal.

Other options open for Morocco include the adoption of “slow-release nitrogen applications, drip irrigation when there is access to water for agriculture, and the development of new cultivation methods, such as a no-tillage system for better soil and water conservation,” according to a recent release by World Bank. (3)

Projections indicate demand for wheat in Morocco, driven by the country’s population increase (now estimated at 37 million), expanding urbanization that is eating into agricultural land, and the high consumption of wheat products.

The deficit in wheat production would see Morocco import an estimated 46.3 million quintals of wheat by 2030, figures that are expected to increase to 57.3 million quintals by 2050.

The current trend in wheat imports, which analysts say could worsen Morocco’s food trade deficit, “will continue over time, with an urbanization rate of 64% in 2021 and higher wheat consumption in Morocco compared to the global rate.”

Morocco’s wheat market performance appears tied to climate change, which in turn is influencing global wheat pricing.

But Morocco and other net importers of wheat, as well leading producers, have to monitor emerging global happenings, such as the crises around the Black Sea and in the Middle East, as these situations now require market players to look for sustainable ways of cushioning the international cereals trade supply chain against possible disruption.

Shem Oirere is a freelance writer based in Nairobi, Kenya. He can be reached at shem@shemoirere.com, +254-722-167-733.

Sources
1. GIEWS Country Brief: Morocco 21-March-2024, reliefweb.int/report/morocco/giews-country-brief-morocco-21-march-2024.

2. “Sustainability assessment of the main cereals market in Morocco: Evaluating production and import,” European Journal of Sustainable Development, 2023 12-2, ecsdev.org/ojs/index.php/ejsd/article/view/1394.

3. “Moroccan Farmers Search for Solutions in the Face of Climate Change,” World Bank, worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2023/12/20/moroccan-farmers-search-for-solutions-in-the-face-of-climate-change.