Each year, on March 31, those who grow, trade or import U.S. agricultural commodities look to USDA’s annual Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks Report for indications of potential price movements.
The consensus from analysts across the industry on how this week’s reports will affect wheat markets is generally bullish.
For reference, in its January 2023 Wheat Outlook report, USDA estimated total U.S. winter wheat planted area for 2023/24 at 37.0 million acres (14.9 million hectares), up 11% from last year to the highest level since 2015/16.
The hard red winter wheat (HRW) area was up 10% to 25.3 M/ac (10.2 M/ha), while white winter wheat is up by 3% to 3.73 M/ac (1.5 M/ha). soft red winter wheat (SRW) experienced the most significant increase, jumping 20% from 2022/23 to 7.9 M/ac (3.2 M/ha).
USDA’s February Grains and Oilseed Outlook projected an 8% increase in all wheat planted area to 49.5 M/ac (20.0 M/ha). U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) compiled the following pre-report perspectives.